| The sub-group met on May 31, 2001, today to discuss various
issues relating to the compulsory rolling settlement. The sub-group discussed among other
things the modalities for the implementation of risk containment system based on 99% Value
At Risk (VAR) margin and a system for a market wide index based circuit breaker in the
rolling settlement. Pursuant to the discussions, the following decisions were taken;
1. Margins based on VAR
- For the scrips in the compulsory rolling settlement, the 99% VAR based margin system
would be introduced with effect from July 02, 2001 in the following manner:
- For the additional 251 scrips which will be included in the compulsory rolling
settlement with effect from July 02, 2001 exchanges will calculate scrip wise VAR and
index based VAR as indicated below and apply the higher of the two as the margin
percentage:
- Scrip wise daily volatility will be calculated using the same exponentially weighted
moving average methodology that is used in the index futures market and the scrip wise
daily VAR will be calculated as 3.5 times the volatility so calculated.
- The index based VAR will be calculated as the index VAR times a suitable multiplier
which is discussed further below.
- The multiplier factor for each of these 251 stocks will be calculated every month by
comparing the average volatility of the scrip with the average volatility of the index.
This multiplier shall not in any case be less than 1.5.
- For the 163 scrips already in the compulsory rolling settlement the margin will be 1.5
times the daily index VAR.
- The minimum daily index VAR shall be 5% as in the index futures market at present.
- The VAR calculated by an exchange at the end of the day would be used for the purpose of
margin calculations for the transactions carried out next day.
- While the above calculations will address 99% of the cases, it would be necessary to
have an additional level of margin to address the 1% of the cases to supplement the VAR
based margins. Based on the analysis of historical data of individual stock VARs, it was
felt that additional margin of 12% may be necessary.
- The VAR calculations will be based either on BSE Sensex or S & P CNX Nifty and would
be disseminated by the BSE and NSE daily on .their websites by 6:30 pm in a downloadable
format.
- Other stock exchanges could make their own VAR calculations based on BSE Sensex and
S&P CNX Nifty or freely adopt the VAR calculations available on the sites of BSE and
NSE.
- In addition to the margin calculated on the VAR basis, exchanges shall continue to
collect mark-to-market margin.
- The exchanges should at their discretion impose additional margin on scrips wherever
necessary to contain the risks in the market.
Direct debits of members
SEBI has already advised exchanges that a system of direct debit/credit of the
members settlement account should be in place for margin payment and the practice of
payment of margin by cheque shall be completely done away with.
Market Wide Circuit Breakers
With regard to implementing an index based market wide circuit breaker, it was
decided that these will apply at three stages of the index movement either way at 10%, 15%
and 20%. These circuit breakers will bring about a coordinated halt trading in all equity
and equity derivative markets nationwide.
The market wide circuit breakers would be triggered by movement of either BSE Sensex or
the NSE S&P CNX Nifty whichever is breached earlier.
- In case of a 10% movement of either of these indices, there would be a 1 hour market
halt if the movement takes place before 1 pm. In case the movement takes place at or after
1 pm but before 2:30 pm there will be a trading halt for ½ hour. In case the movement
takes place at or after 2:30 pm there will be no trading halt at the 10% level and the
market will continue trading.
- In case of a 15% movement of either index, there will be a 2 hour halt if the movement
takes place before 1 pm. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 1 pm but before 2 pm,
there will be a 1 hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 2 pm the trading
will halt for the remainder of the day.
- In case of a 20% movement of the index, the trading will be halted for the remainder of
the day.
These percentages will be translated into absolute points of index variations on a
quarterly basis and at the end of each quarter these absolute points of index variations
would be revised and be applicable for the next quarter.
An analysis of the index movements of BSE Sensex between January 1984 and May 2001
shows that the Sensex has moved by 10% either way on five occasions.
Scrip wise price bands
In addition to the market wide index based circuit filters, the sub group was of
the view that there should be individual scrip wise price bands of 20% either way, for all
scrips in the compulsory rolling settlement except for scrips on which derivatives
products are available or scrips including in indices on which derivatives products are
available. This recommendation would need the approval of the SEBI Board which had earlier
decided to remove price bands completely in rolling settlement.
For scrips that are not in compulsory rolling settlement, the existing price bands
would continue.
Gross margins in the cash market.
Presently margins are calculated on a gross basis across clients in the
ALBM/MCFS/BLESS. This will be extended to the entire market. As this step would involve
certain modifications in the system software of the exchanges, the gross margining for the
entire market would come into effect from September 03, 2001.
Liquidation of deferral positions
The exchanges would monitor closely the outstanding deferral positions on their
exchanges and would ensure that time schedule for liquidation are followed and that all
deferral positions are liquidated by September 03, 2001. The liquidation of outstanding
positions as on July 02, 2001 shall be allowed only with the approved deferral products in
the rolling settlement.
Responsibility of the Stock Exchanges
The introduction of the rolling settlement across a large number of scrips which
would cover majority of the trading volume, is an important structural change for the
market and would require the exchanges to remain vigilant and strengthen their
surveillance and monitoring mechanisms. |